How to fix health insurance w/ no Gov’t required January 27, 2010Posted by visceralrebellion in Health Care.
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While the details of premium calculation by health insurance companies (HIC) are very complex, premiums may be broken down into the following categories for the purpose of explaining premiums to the average educated American.
Monthly health insurance premiums are calculated using the following basic formula:
(((Claims Risk+Administrative Cost)/(Number of Members in Group)))/(12 months)=Monthly Premium per Member
Claims Risk is comprised of two general parts:
Unanticipated expenses, such as hospital stays and emergency care. These expenses are determined using both statistical analysis of the group’s previous claims and research on the likelihood of injury and disease among the group’s members based on group demographics and occupation.
Mandated expenses, those services and products the government forces every HIC to cover, e.g. birth control, mammograms, acupuncture, etc.
Administrative costs are the standard costs of doing business including salaries, taxes, equipment, etc. The “Cadillac tax” would fall into this component if enacted.
The number of members is artificially determined by law. Currently, every group must have one and only one Taxpayer ID Number to purchase the plan, whether an SSN or an Employer ID Number. Unlike car and life insurance, HICs are not permitted to create a benefit plan that allows any number of individuals or employers to join.
Example numbers will clarify. These are SWAG numbers, particularly the claims risk numbers. I’ve tried to maintain proportions in claims risk and list constants.
Example 1: a small business with 25 employees purchases a standard HMO plan. The claims risk for those 25 employees is calculated to be $100,000—$70,000 unanticipated and $30,000 mandated ($1,200 per member per year for mammograms, physicals, etc.) Administrative costs typically run $2 per member per month, so add $600 per year.
The calculation appears thus:
((($100,000+$600)/25))/(12 months)=$335.00 per member per month
Let’s increase the group size to 200. The associated claims risk goes up as well, though not as much due to the statistics. The mandated costs go way up because of the relative certainty of those expenses.
Claims risk: $200,000 unanticipated, $240,000 anticipated (still $1,200 per member per year)
((($420,000+$4,800)/200))/(12 months)=$177.00 per member per month
Increasing the group size nearly halves the costs per member per month.
Increase the group size to 1,000, the typical large company.
Claims risk: $800,000 unanticipated, $1,100,000 anticipated ($1,200 per member per year for mammograms, physicals, etc.) Administrative is 1000($2)(12) or $24,000.
((($1,900,000+$24,000)/1000))/(12 months)=$160.33 per member per month
Simple mathematics demonstrates that the larger the number of members, the lower the costs per member per month.
To immediately reduce premiums for everyone—not just unions and Nebraskans—without a dollar of tax money and without a single federal agency, simply allow HICs to pool members the same way property and life insurance companies pool members. The HIC offers a benefit package that allows employers or individuals to join the package, NOT the group, which greatly increases the denominator while not increasing the anticipated cost factor of the numerator by very much at all.
As an aside, let’s look at what forcing preexisting coverage does to the premiums.
Use the same calculation, but the claims risk increases dramatically. Take a diabetic for example. Average costs for insulin-dependent diabetic are $25,000 annually for that single person: an additional $10,000 in known expenses such as insulin and needles, and $15,000 for greatly increased risk of hospitalization and emergency care. Using the 200 member group, the calculation is:
((($445,000+$6,000)/201))/(12 months)=$186.00 per member per month
To take on one preexisting condition, each member’s premium increases $9.98 per month, or $119.00 per year.
Currently, if the diabetic had not had coverage in the previous 12 months the diabetic must wait one year for coverage for diabetic services and products, after which the diabetes is covered. This allows the claims experience for the group to absorb some, but certainly not all, of the increased costs over the yearlong wait. If the diabetic has had coverage over the entire previous 12 months, there is no waiting period and the group has to absorb the costs immediately.
Conservativism not as dead as once thought January 24, 2010Posted by visceralrebellion in Uncategorized.
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Scott Brown drove Olbermann to a frothing hysteria–priceless!
That Brown canvassed Massachussets saying we must fight terrorists rather than grant them Constitutional rights, that the states should retain soverignty to do things like health care, that taxes must be lowered for all, and WON is nothing less than a miracle. Perhaps our northern citizens aren’t as lost as I once thought.
And the monstrosity called health care “reform” is on life support. As a commenter at the American Spectator noted,
MarkJ| 1.20.10 @ 5:20PM
Knowing Nancy Pelosi as we do, the only way we’ll really know ObamaReidPelosiCare is dead is when we (figuratively) shoot it with silver bullets, chop off its head, drive a stake through its heart, stuff its mouth full of garlic, put a crucifix on its chest, and bury the stinking corpse face down in a holy water-filled coffin under ten feet of concrete.
When we do all that, then I’ll rest easy about ObamaReidPelosiCare.
Hope springs anew.
MLK and his dream January 18, 2010Posted by visceralrebellion in National Politics.
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It seems to me that the US race industry would disgust MLK, presuming that he actually believed that all should be judged based on character. The race industry judges all solely upon the color of the skin.
The Cadillac Tax will apply to all January 18, 2010Posted by visceralrebellion in Health Care.
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No one is talking about how being forced to cover all preexisting conditions will significantly raise everyone’s premiums, which will then move everyone into the “Cadillac Tax.”
In their envy and greed, those who think they’re going to get something for nothing are setting themselves up for a 40% tax on the most basic of plans. Fools, the lot of them.
Yet another shining example of the law of unintended consequences.
Haiti is lost January 17, 2010Posted by visceralrebellion in Uncategorized.
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I’m watching a news report on Haiti and the reports that Haitians will become violent if they aren’t “given” what they want and need.
Frankly, I’m disgusted by the general Haitian attitude that they are owed anything whatsoever from anyone else in the world.
No, Haiti, you are NOT owed a single thing other than the respect given to all human beings as the sole agent of their own lives. Haiti is a shithole because Haitians want it to be a shithole, or at the very least don’t care that it’s a shithole.
My faith requires me to extend charity. Watching the videos of the injured, especially children, is gutwrenching.
And then I hear the demands. I hear that the Haitians are simply sitting around waiting for someone else to do what needs done. They can pile corpses in the street to block trucks, but they can’t remove debris from those same streets so trucks can move through.
It is sad knowledge that Haiti will be hell no matter what amount of money is poured into it, no matter how many well-meaning aid workers toil countless hours. Haiti is hell because the Haitians don’t care.
So why should I?
The Law of Unintended Consequences January 13, 2010Posted by visceralrebellion in Uncategorized.
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I work for a health insurance company in a southern state.
Throughout 2008 many of my coworkers–especially those with lots of melanin in the epidermis–were nearly incoherent in their support for Obama and the Democrats. Not only incoherent but loudly incoherent.
Now those same people are faced with the fact that Obama and the Democrats are gunning for their jobs. Their ebullience has collapsed and they suddenly seem far more concerned about the realities of life.
Under what is currently known about the monstrosity called health care reform, my company will have to cut operations areas–claim keyers, customer service reps, etc.–by half within the next two years. The parking lots are full of Obama bumperstickers and those foolks have a 50/50 chance of enjoying the unemployment line. The outlook isn’t quite as grim for those of us in the IT department but it isn’t looking great either.
So when fury at the government is at its peak I remind myself that the people in my midst have to live with the knowledge that they blindly supported the very people who are destroying their jobs and that makes me smile. At least I had the sense to resist the pathos of Obama’s teleprompter. They haven’t even that comfort.
The law of unintended consequences is proof positive that God has a sense of humor.
Climate, Weather & Models January 8, 2010Posted by visceralrebellion in Uncategorized.
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Even the most casual observer can’t help but notice the hypocricy of the climate doomsayers. Heat waves must be a result of global warming, but the coldest winter in 30+ years has nothing to do with climate. It’s just a weather event, you see.
SYDNEY (Reuters) – A heatwave scorching southern Australia, causing transport chaos by buckling rail lines and leaving more than 140,000 homes without power, is a sign of climate change, the government said on Thursday.
Climate Change Minister Penny Wong said the heatwave, which started on Wednesday, was the sort of weather scientists had been warning about.
“Eleven of the hottest years in history have been in the last 12, and we also note, particularly in the southern part of Australia, we’re seeing less rainfall,” Wong told reporters.
“All of this is consistent with climate change, and all of this is consistent with what scientists told us would happen.”
Disregard the well-documented fraud masquerading as temperature data coming out of Down Under. Let’s play along.
Now consider the frigid conditions that have sent the eastern US into teeth-chattering fits.
There are few precedents for the global sweep of extreme cold and ice that has killed dozens in India, paralyzed life in Beijing and threatened the Florida orange crop. Chicagoans are taking shelter from a potentially deadly freeze, Paris is enduring sunny Siberian cold and Poland has counted at least 13 deaths in record low temperatures of about 13 degrees below zero. A string of deadly avalanches in northern Italy’s Alps led to seven deaths.
Guo Hu, the head of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau, linked these conditions to unusual atmospheric patterns caused by global warming. “In the context of global warming, extreme atmospheric flows are causing extreme climate incidents to appear more frequently, such as the summer’s rainstorms and last year’s ice storm disaster in southern China,” he told Beijing News.
Deke Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center was more cautious, arguing that’s it’s too soon to draw any conclusions about global warming — or global cooling — from the rash of frigid weather.
“This is essentially a series of weather events happening simultaneously well below the climate scale,” he argued. “This is an entirely different event in terms of the time scales we talk about for global warming.”
Cold weather doesn’t necessarily mean anything when considered against long-term global trends — even sustained, worldwide cold weather and record-setting snowfalls. But it must just put a chill on the panic and hype surrounding global warming.
Overall, Arndt believes the cold weather, while potentially dangerous and hardly insignificant, isn’t enough to impact the larger warming trend. “It would take much more than this to significantly impact the global trends that we’ve been seeing for a few decades,” he said.
So a heat wave in Australia is proof of global warming, but a deep freeze in Europe and the US isn’t a refutation of global warming.
When is a weather event a sign of the climate? When the global warmists want it to be. When is a weather event unrelated to climate? When the global warmists want it to be. Nothing to do with science. It’s all politics. It’s religion.
Expecting intelligent people to fall for that nonsense is ludicrous, yet they continue to push it. Why?
Beyond the glaring tautology lies the disgraced climate models upon which this religious crusade is based. The code released in the Climategate .zip file irrefutably reveals the fraud perpetrated by the fifty or so scientist-priests who have created and promoted the notion that CO2, the gas exhaled by every living creature and used for cellular respiration by every chlorophyll-bearing lifeform, is causing the end of the world.
A model is little more than a tool that attempts to predict future events. In this case, the models are supposed to contain all–or enough of–the variables to predict climate. That the models did not predict the leveling off of temperatures after 1998 or the downward trend from 2006 to today, is absolute proof that the models aren’t worth the electrons used to run them.
The models are all the warmists have so like Crusader knights they’re defending the castle to the very end. Without the public’s belief in the models, all the CRUs of the world have is their hysterical screeds–hardly enough to force average people to drastically reduce their standards of living. Make no mistake: that is the warmists’ end goal.
Sorry, but I’m neither ignorant nor hysterical enough to fall for that.
The Shivering English January 6, 2010Posted by visceralrebellion in Science Hoax of the Century.
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The Brits are suddenly realizing why everyone wanted out of the Soviet Union.
The National Grid yesterday issued only its second-ever warning that demand for energy is threatening to outstrip available supplies unless industry quickly slashes its consumption and more gas is rushed in from abroad.
The alert prompted the wholesale cost of gas to rocket by 70 per cent and raised fears that businesses and households could soon be hit by power cuts if the freezing weather persists as forecast for the rest of the month.
Shadow Energy Secretary Greg Clark warned: “For 12 years the Government has had its head in the sand about Britain’s precarious energy security.
“Today’s alert is a taste of what is to come as a result of Labour’s negligence – gas supply shortages and regular power cuts. I have repeatedly warned that Britain lacks the back-up plans that France and Germany have for these situations.” National Grid issued its warning – known as a gas balancing alert – because an unexpected shortfall meant Britain’s demand was at risk.
Gas was flowing out of the UK’s main storage facility at Rough, 18 miles off the Yorkshire coast, at a record rate yesterday as energy needed for homes and businesses came very close to the previous record high.
Analysts said the freeze combined with the post-New Year return to work created a surge which put intense pressure on supplies and added to the need for expensive additional gas to be pumped in from mainland Europe. Experts have estimated that Britain only has enough gas storage for 15 days so in times of high demand we have to rely on imports.
Ian Parrett, of energy analysts Inenco, warned that the country was in danger of being held to ransom over gas prices and blamed a lack of investment in storage plants.
“We’re faced with a shortfall of supply created by a combination of the cold weather and the number of people returning to work and putting the heating back on putting extra demand on the system,” he said. “Some big companies on interruptible gas contracts risk a reduction or cessation of their supply.”
Britain is increasingly reliant on imported gas because North Sea supplies are running out. Official predictions said just over 50 per cent of winter supplies would come from the North Sea with the rest piped from Europe and by ship from the Caribbean and the Far East.
A spokesman for energy market regulator Ofgem said of the National Grid’s alert: “It is a signal to the market to tell it that there is a possibility that gas demand could exceed gas supplies.”
The warning encouraged industry to use less gas and sent an appeal to the supply market to lift quotas. Its impact was a leap in the wholesale cost of gas from 35p to 60p per unit of energy – the therm.
An analyst at energy experts Platts warned: “This is only the first day of the current cold snap. What would be really scary would be if it stayed at 60p for months.”
Jeremy Nicholson, director of the Energy Intensive Users Group, which represents heavy industry, said: “This shows how vulnerable we are in the UK.”
A National Grid spokesman last night said of the imports: “It is all designed to ensure that domestic gas supplies are not affected.”
A spokeswoman for Energy UK which represents the big energy suppliers said: “Consumers shouldn’t be worried about this. The reason energy companies buy in advance is to protect customers from peaks in demand.”
Infected with the illness known as “environmentalism,” they allowed their government to install windmills and decommission working power plants to stop “global warming.”
But the windmills aren’t turning, so the electricity isn’t cranking. While they aren’t yet in the dark, the risk is growing.
With the shortage of heating gas, they’re being instructed by that same government to cut back on energy use now, in the midst of what the British newspapers declare the coldest winter in 30 years.
Lesson: when a population gives government control over the basic necessities of life in exchange for promises to halt the end of the world, the population will eventually suffer and needlessly die for lack of those necessities. Governments are incapable of functioning with anything near competence in any venue, whether energy or food or housing or medical care, and a population that becomes so slothful as to refuse to provide for itself is a population in grave danger.
How does a middle aged woman become a rebel? January 6, 2010Posted by visceralrebellion in Uncategorized.
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It began when the Congress decided that I must pay for others’ health care through a dramatic increase in cigarette taxes. I simply refused to pay it.
Did I quit smoking? No. I just don’t pay it. Rather than submit, I found a way around it.
The 535 individuals who comprise the most egotistic yet most ignorant body to which the world has been afflicted left a class of tobacco out of the legislation. Whether by intent (think professor) or pure ignorance, pipe tobacco is not subject to the tax. Hence, it didn’t take long for pipe tobacco, which differs from cigarette tobacco only in the width of the cut, to be sold as an alternative to loose cigarette tobacco and pre-made cigarettes. With an old food processor, a box of cigarette tubes and a half hour each evening, I have opted out of the Congress’ redistribution of my wealth.
It’s a wondrous feeling, knowing that I’ve made a successful end run around them, and suddenly I began looking for other ways to “stick it to the (wo)man.”
Of course, I’ve never been remotely close to politically correct so I’ve unknowingly been a rebel for many years. Rebellion this overt at this age, however, is new. I was a complete rebel between 10 and 21 but with a family and responsibilities that sort of rebellion is not only unwise but unthinkable.
Now I look for every opportunity to thwart their control over my life. Creativity is required, as is perseverance, but that’s okay with me.